Predicting a Recession: Evidence from the Yield Curve in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Analysis of Khorramabad Motahari Karstic Springhead (Sarab) Recession Curve Based on Recession Coefficient during Hydro-Climatic Fluctuations

The hydrographic specifications of the karstic spring and the recession coefficient can reflect the hydro-climatic fluctuations and physical and geological characteristics of the aquifer system recharging the spring. In this study, in order to identify the hydrological geological behavior of Khorramabad Motahhari karstic Springhead (Sarab) during hydro-climatic fluctuations, quantitative analys...

The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions

The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. In this paper, I consider a number of probit models using the yield curve to forecast recessions. Models that use both the level of the federal funds rate and the term spread give better insample fit, and better out-of-sample pre...

Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis In OIC Countries: Evidence From Panel Unit Root Tests With Heterogeneous Structural Breaks

Threshold Effects in Sticky Information Philips Curve: Evidence from Iran

During the last decade, several studies have argued that sticky information model proposed by Mankiw and Reis (2002), in which firms update their information occasionally rather than instantaneously, explains some stylized facts about the inflation dynamics. Sticky information pricing model successfully captures the sluggish movement of aggregate prices in response to monetary policy shocks. De...

Monitoring Business Cycles with Structural Breaks

This paper examines the predictive content of coincident variables for monitoring U.S. recessions in the presence of instabilities. We propose several specifications of a probit model for classifying phases of the business cycle. We find strong evidence in favor of the ones that allow for the possibility that the economy has experienced recurrent breaks. The recession probabilities of these mod...